Rugby World Cup: Who wins and how far will the All Blacks go? Our tournament predictions - Sky
The 2023 Rugby World Cup is almost upon us, as the All Blacks prepare to meet France in a blockbuster tournament opener in Paris on Saturday (7.15am kickoff NZT).
Stuff will live stream Sky TV’s coverage of that opening match as part of our partnership with the host broadcaster, and provide extensive coverage of the buildup and the tournament itself, right through to the final on October 29.
So, who wins, and how far will the All Blacks progress?
We asked our team of Stuff rugby writers for their predictions as they prepare to bring you all the tournament news, reaction, analysis, opinion and live match coverage.
Marc Hinton
Marc is an Auckland-based senior sports writer with nearly four decades of experience in the UK and New Zealand. He is covering his sixth Rugby World Cup and will follow the All Blacks in France throughout the tournament, providing all the news from the camp, plus analysis and reaction from their matches.
1.Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
It’s tough to be optimistic about the All Blacks after Twickers. Too many weaknesses. And France have all that pressure at home. So I’ve got two teams from the same pool making it through tough quarters, and easy semis. A South Africa v Ireland final, with Andy Farrell’s men nudging out the Boks in a mighty arm-wrestle.
2.How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
Quarterfinal exit. All things being equal, there is nothing between the big four. Those quarters in Paris will be epic and could swing on a call, a card or a bounce of the ball. But the ABs will have to be on song to get past Ireland or South Africa, and it would not surprise to see them heading home then.
3.Which team will be the biggest flop?
Well, a quarterfinal exit would see the All Blacks close to that dubious honour. But right now it looks a close contest between England, Wales and Australia. Failure to make it out of their group would nail the flop title, and I have Warren Gatland’s shaky team tripping at the first hurdle, and repeating history from ‘07.
Richard Knowler
Richard is a senior sports writer, based in our Christchurch newsroom since 2003. He has covered the All Blacks since 2004 and will join them for the knockout stages in France to provide news, analysis and reaction as the tournament hits the business end. This will be Richard’s fourth Rugby World Cup.
1.Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
France to beat the All Blacks in the final. I'm picking a repeat of the opening game of the tournament in Paris on September 9, which the French will win to top Pool A. Les Bleus will be a juggernaut in front of their home fans.
2.How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
All the way to the final. I'm not spooked by the All Blacks' disastrous result against the Springboks in London last weekend. The sight of All Blacks players piling into minivans the next day, wearing football shirts to attend an EPL match, was curious. How tooled-up were they, mentally, for the big game at Twickenham? I predict they will meet and beat the Boks in the quarterfinal, before taking care of the Wallabies in the semi.
3.Which team will be the biggest flop?
Wales. They won't get out of Pool C, with the Wallabies and Fiji taking care of Warren Gatland's men. It will be a shame, because the Welsh fans deserve better; their passion and singing is a tremendous asset to the international game. Sadly they won't be heard on the other side of the English Channel during the playoffs.
Paul Cully
Paul is a Dunedin-based senior sports writer who covers rugby for Stuff after spending more than a decade with the Sydney Morning Herald as a sub-editor, sports editor and rugby columnist. He will provide analysis of the All Blacks and other main contenders throughout the tournament, and host live chats alongside Stuff’s streams.
1.Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
The Rugby World Cup final will be played between France and New Zealand, with France lifting the trophy in a reversal of their group stage result between the two teams.
2.How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
Beaten finalists. They'll top their group after the Scott Barrett verdict gave them a massive psychological lift heading into the opening night game against France. That will mean a quarterfinal date against Scotland or Ireland, who will not cope with the occasion. Jason Ryan will be making the forwards eat cement for the next month after being humbled by South Africa. New Zealand can still go a long way.
3.Which team will be the biggest flop?
England – it's already written in the stars. In the 2000s, no beaten finalist at a Rugby World Cup has gone beyond the quarterfinals at the following tournament. England are certainly living down to those expectations. They've been underwhelming for two years and will again depart at the quarterfinal stages at the hands of Eddie Jones and the Wallabies.
Aaron Goile
Aaron is a senior sports writer based in Hamilton where he covers the Chiefs and is a regular on Stuff’s All Blacks coverage. For the World Cup he will do player ratings, live blogs of All Blacks and other feature matches, and analysis including regular referee reviews.
1.Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
It’s the most open World Cup of all time. But it’s the All Blacks and Springboks, the two storied rivals, locking horns in the big dance, each vying to become the first side to claim a fourth title. And it’s the men in black who triumph, giving Ian Foster the most stunning of send-offs.
2.How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
They go all the way. It’s no easy task in this badly lopsided draw, but they negotiate their tricky quarterfinal, do the business in an easier semifinal, then put it together against the Boks with much-improved discipline and grunt up front to light it up out wide.
3.Which team will be the biggest flop?
France. Usually thriving on their carefree style, the world No 3 will get swallowed by the weight of expectation in their home tournament. The loss of star No 10 Romain Ntamack does not help, and for a third tournament in a row they are knocked out in the quarterfinals.
Robert van Royen
Robert is a Christchurch-based sports writer who joined Stuff from the Otago Daily Times in 2016. He covers the Crusaders and is a regular on Stuff’s All Blacks coverage. For the World Cup he will primarily do player ratings, live blogs of All Blacks and other feature matches, and analysis including weekly power rankings of how the top-eight teams stack up.
1.Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
Let’s mix it up. Argentina take advantage of their comically weak side of the draw to set up a finale with France. Crown the hosts, who are too good en route to becoming the second northern hemisphere side to win the tournament.
2.How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
Quarterfinals and done. They will beat France in the opener, but that sets up a sudden-death quarterfinal against Ireland, who smash and bash their way past Ian Foster's men.
3.Which team will be the biggest flop?
It's a close call between England and Australia, both of whom have been dreadful in the leadup to the tournament. But let's go with England, who could very well fail to get out of a group also containing Argentina, Japan and Samoa.
Joseph Pearson
Joseph is a sports writer who joined Stuff just before the 2015 World Cup, and is based in Hamilton. He covered the Black Ferns throughout their memorable run to the world title on home soil last year. Joseph will lead Stuff’s live coverage, primarily the live blogs of All Blacks and other feature matches.
1. Who makes the final, and who lifts the trophy?
No team plays to their strengths quite like South Africa. It’s not pretty to watch, but it’s brutally effective. The Springboks have a knack of hitting top form in the World Cup, too. However, France have the power to match them and additional attacking flair that can take Les Bleus to their first title.
2. How far will the All Blacks progress, and why?
Quarterfinal exit. The lopsided draw means the All Blacks will face an almighty test – likely against South Africa or Ireland – to reach the semifinals. Both have proven they are more than capable of toppling Ian Foster’s side, even if Ireland have to overcome their traditional quarterfinal jitters.
3. Which team will be the biggest flop?
Someone has to crash and burn. How about Eddie Jones’ Wallabies. Jones left England in a mess. He is making another with Australia. They face the ignominy of failing to reach the knockout stages for the first time, even with Fiji and Wales in their pool and a supposedly more favourable draw.
